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When COVID-19 pandemic hit, there was serious concern about the potential impact of the pandemic on the global food supply chain.At first the situation looked grim. The movement of agricultural products became difficult as border shutdowns and restrictions on travel threatened the movement of goods across planet, and virus outbreaks at farms and processing plants created severe bottlenecks. Restaurants and other food service operations closed down (in many cases for good), creating more strain on distribution channels. And yet here we are a year into the global pandemic, and the end is in sight. Vaccine production and distribution are ramping up, and the global food supply chain has not collapsed. Far from it - in fact, the global agriculture industry is now stronger than ever. This is a story of resilience, of adapting to rapidly changing conditions in how we feed the world— and a story of how a global health crisis didnt' become a widespread global food crisis.

The Food Supply Chain: A Complex Web of Stages

The global food supply chain is an interconnected web, in which people depend heavily on each other to maintain stability. Think of it as a process involving five different stages:

1. Agriculture production
2. Postharvest handling
3. Food processing
4. Distribution/retail/service
5. Consumption

A chain is only as strong as its weakest link, and each one of these five stages has proven vulnerable to pandemic disruption. Among these links in the chain, the biggest shifts of all have been in stages 4 and 5, the 'where' and 'how' of distribution and consumption.

Food Service Hit Hard by the Pandemic

Everyone is aware of how hard the pandemic hit restaurants in the US and elsewhere. But the statistics are even more shocking when you look at them up close. The pandemic has forced more than 110,000 restaurants to close their doors for good. Before the pandemic, 2020 was set to be a banner year for restaurants and bars, with a sales forecast of $899 billion. The reality was $659 billion, a decline of nearly 27%. A year ago there were 12.2 million people working in restaurants and bars - today that figure stands at only 9.8 million. In pre-pandemic times, money spent on “food away from home” (FAFH) was quickly rising much faster than “food at home” (FAH) according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service, and people were consuming about a third all their dietary intake by meals away from home. Remember that food away from home includes the food consumed in school cafeterias, higher education dining services, hotels and catering, workplaces, and other kinds of institutional food service.The two biggest food service supply companies, Aramark and Sysco, saw their stock prices decline sharply through April of 2020, and although both have bounced back to some extent, they’re still down from pre-pandemic values. This situation of rapid decline in demand for food products is a big concern for the agricultural sector, which depends on it for price stability and a constant, steady demand for agricultural products. Shifts in Consumer Demand: Everyone Still has to EatThe global food supply chain benefits from the fact everyone still has to eat, which is why the demand for many basic food products remains constant. But there have been monumental shifts in the consumer demand landscape in terms of how consumers are feeding themselves. Yes, restaurant closures are disturbing. Yes, many meals are not happening away from home the way they were before the pandemic. But many restaurants are still doing a brisk business because they pivoted to take-out service only. In other cases those that already did home delivery service are busier than ever. In yet other cases, restaurants have signed up to be a part of third-party food delivery services. The Rise of Food Delivery DoorDash went public in the midst of the pandemic in December 2020, with initial estimates putting share prices at around $93, but the stock has been pretty consistently about twice that amount since then. Uber’s stock price declined sharply in March 2020 when stay-at-home orders were put in place across the nation, but now is the highest it’s ever been thanks to the demand for Uber Eats food delivery. Uber Eats is making way more money right now than the ride-hailing service of Uber, and the company thinks demand will remain high even after the pandemic. Uber Eats has experienced a 190% increase in its use.Supermarkets and Grocery Stores: Lessons LearnedAnd the demand for food products at supermarkets also saw huge spikes—and those images of empty supermarket shelves were something most Americans have never seen in their lives. It was disturbing. But once people got through the early phases of panic-buying and hoarding, things mostly straightened out. Supermarkets also learned the importance of developing online ordering and pick-up services for consumers who don’t want to go into the store during a pandemic.The Bottom Line: Resilience and Adaptation are the Key to StabilityWhen you think about it, all this goes to show that the food supply chain is surprisingly resilient and able to adapt to change. People still needed to eat, but it was happening in a very different way from how it was happening before the pandemic.It remains to be seen to what extent the monumental shifts in consumer demand will stay in place as the pandemic is ultimately resolved with effective vaccines. And if (or when) something like this happens again, hopefully we’ll remember that we can weather a perfect storm if we work together to nimbly adapt the food supply chain in response to rapidly changing conditions.

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