Colombia's Political Situation: An Overview

Colombia’s political situation is complex. In fact, that’s an understatement. 

Three years into the tumultuous but largely ineffectual administration of Gustavo Petro, Colombians are ready for a change. But what form that change will take is difficult to gauge. 

One year out from the next election, let’s take a look at how we got here, the current state of affairs, and how things are shaping up for the political future of the country.

The Road To Petro

The 2022 Colombian election was something of an anomaly. Initially, it looked to be a fairly straightforward contest between the center-right Federico Gutiérrez, former and current mayor of Medellín, and hard-line leftist Petro. In a two-way race, all signs pointed to a Gutiérrez victory.

But Gutiérrez was not without his baggage. 

During the campaign, his opposition was able to brand him as a successor to Alvaro Uribe, the controversial ex-president. While many in Colombia credit Uribe with ending the armed conflict and cleaning up the country, others see him as a strongman who presided over forced disappearances and corruption. Uribe is currently on trial for fraud. 

The connection to Uribe was dubious - but it worked. Added to the failure to properly articulate his platform, Gutierrez placed third in the first round of the presidential election, and was left on the sidelines during the runoff. 

This probably would not have happened if it weren’t for dark-horse candidate Rodoflo Hernandez. The rambunctious former mayor of Bucaramanga threw his hat into the ring late in the race, running a chaotic but attention-grabbing campaign that managed to beat out Gutierrez in the first round of elections. 

Dubbed the ‘king of Tik Tok’ for his viral following, Hernandez was totally outside the political spectrum. In Trump-esque fashion, his policy proposals were sometimes erratic. Although he vowed to eradicate corruption, reform the prison system, and balance the budget, it was nonetheless difficult for voters to pin down his platform. 

With the establishment candidate out of the picture and voters skeptical of outsider Hernandez, Gustavo Petro emerged as the victor in the 2022 elections. 

Petro: The Lame Duck

At the outset, the political left hailed Petro’s election as a great victory. But it didn’t take long for the wheels to fall off. 

Not long after taking office, the country was rocked by widespread protests against his agenda. One of his earliest priorities was to raise taxes to fund the expansion of various government programs - an unwelcome move for a populace still reeling from COVID fallout. 

Added to this were persistent accusations of campaign finance violations, which have since proven accurate. Petro’s son, Nicolas, admitted to taking money from drug-connected players and using it to finance his father’s campaign. Numerous Petro associates are under investigation for similar violations. 

The list goes on: in 2023, accusations of illegal surveillance and hush money were levied against Petro associate Laura Sarabia, a 30-year old appointee to high-level positions such as Chief of Staff. One of her domestic staff also accused her of abuses of power in a scandal known as “Nannygate.” 

The fact that Sarabia was appointed to such positions to begin with also drew suspicion, as she was massively underqualified. The rumor that Sarabia is more than a confidante to Petro has been persistent during his administration. 

In part due to these recurring scandals, the Petro regime has been unable to advance large swaths of its agenda, facing staunch opposition in the Senate and from the courts. His early political reform bill was withdrawn from Congress in 2023 after failing to gain bipartisan support, and many policy proposals have faced a similar outcome.

Most recently, Petro’s labor reform bill failed to garner support in the Senate, where it was rejected 49-47. The Senate also rejected a bill to hold a public referendum on the policy, which would have favored Petro. However, the Senate pragmatically chose to reopen discussion on labor reform, avoiding a public referendum and potential unrest. 

Going forward, Petro’s administration appears to be “on ice” following the resignation of many of his cabinet members. So where does this leave Colombia going forward?

The 2026 Election And Beyond

To call the Petro administration a failure would be putting it lightly. The phrase “dumpster fire” comes to mind. 

But Petro’s failure has left the country with an appetite for pragmatic and effective leadership, and this appetite could manifest into a better future for the country. 

On the heels of Donald Trump’s decisive 2024 victory, many Latin American leaders are reassessing their methods of governance and their relationship with the United States. In Colombia, many see stronger ties with the U.S. as a pathway to prosperity. 

Vicky Dávila, a right-leaning independent and current leader in the polls, certainly holds this mentality. Her candidacy, backed by many of the country’s business leaders, would likely result in a more business-friendly environment and increased trade with the U.S.

Sergio Fajardo, another leading candidate, also holds this view. Formerly mayor of Medellín, Fajardo is a pragmatic centrist who is widely credited with propelling the city’s development. An academic and mathematician, he has garnered support with his strong education and development policies. Polls show him winning in a runoff against Dávila and other hopefuls.

For his part, Gustavo Petro will at some point endorse a successor, although given his low popularity, his endorsement could be a poison pill. This would likely be Gustavo Bolívar, a close Petro ally and member of the Pacto Historico party. However, given his predecessor’s performance, the electorate may have lost faith in the party’s ability to govern. 

The remaining candidates are a smorgasbord of political affiliations and policy platforms that span from left of Petro to right-wing players like Maria Cabal, a vocal Trumpist and fierce Petro critic. However, Cabal’s ties to Alvaro Uribe could prove problematic, if the 2022 election is any example. 

Although it’s too close to call - and will be for some time - there is a widespread desire for a new direction among the electorate, and a palpable exhaustion towards the partisan conflicts of the Petro regime. 

Eyes on 2026

Although it’s far too early to begin making predictions, current polling shows Dávila and Fajardo ahead, with Fajardo winning in a runoff.

What would a Fajardo presidency look like? It’s not a stretch to imagine that it would look much like his governance in Medellín. 

During his time as mayor, Fajardo was able to establish non-partisan priorities that have stood the test of time. Investing heavily into education, technology, and green infrastructure, his administration has been credited as laying the groundwork for Medellín’s current success. He exited his position with a 90% approval rating in 2007.

With the Colombian electorate weary of political polarization, it’s easy to imagine an independent centrist such as Fajardo reaching the presidency. One thing is for certain - if the entire country were managed as well as Medellín, it would have a serious impact. For now, only time will tell. 

‍